Category Archives: Economic Analysis

China weighs down U.S. stocks, but for how long?

For anyone who was thinking that it was the Federal Reserve that would trigger a correction, well, say “Hello!” to China! At least, that’s what it looks like triggered Friday’s market sell-off. Slightly worse-than-expected data out of China coupled with … Continue reading

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China’s currency devaluation: A good long-term reform

The Chinese government allowed its currency, the yuan, to depreciate nearly 2% against the dollar on Tuesday (as we anticipated it would eventually do). A slightly weaker currency should help—on the margin—export competitiveness and drive up import prices for China. … Continue reading

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What July’s jobs report means for Fed rate timing

The Federal Reserve (Fed) has said it is looking for some further improvement in the labor market before it hikes its target for the federal funds rate. Today’s employment situation report showed more than some improvement. Nonfarm payrolls increased by … Continue reading

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FOMC paves the way for a rate hike, soon

There were few, but significant, changes to the Federal Open Market Committee’s policy statement. It reads as though the Federal Reserve (Fed) is close to waving the checkered flag on its full employment goal. This shouldn’t be too much of … Continue reading

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Greece: With prior actions done, now for the fun

In the wee hours of Thursday morning in Athens, Greece’s parliament approved the second set of legislation, reforming its judicial procedures and bankruptcy laws. These complete what are called prior actions, conforming with the deal struck with creditors last week. … Continue reading

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Iran deal and investors: More than oil at stake

Negotiators came to an agreement with Iran to restrict Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for a lifting of economic sanctions. Investors, meanwhile, may eventually have more opportunities to invest in the country. There were six countries engaged in negotiations with … Continue reading

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Greece’s deal: A bitter pill?

The weekend’s negotiations were interesting, to say the least. The running narrative in June was that Greece’s government was being irrational. Now Germany has come across as being unreasonably strict. If anything, I guess the past 72 hours have answered … Continue reading

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What’s next for Greece? Frequently asked questions

Now that Greece has defaulted on its debt to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), what happens next? First, Greece hasn’t defaulted, at least according to the technical meaning of the term. Technical meanings are important here. Greece is now “in … Continue reading

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Greece: Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory

On Saturday morning, Greece’s prime minister surprised negotiators (including his own) when he called for Greeks to go to the polls on July 5 and vote on whether Greece should accept the measures proposed by the European Central Bank (ECB), … Continue reading

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FOMC: Another baby step toward liftoff

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) upgraded its assessment of the U.S. economy in its policy statement but signaled it is still waiting for more evidence that inflation will move toward its 2% target. There were tweaks to the economic … Continue reading

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