Category Archives: Economic Analysis

What’s next for Greece? Frequently asked questions

Now that Greece has defaulted on its debt to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), what happens next? First, Greece hasn’t defaulted, at least according to the technical meaning of the term. Technical meanings are important here. Greece is now “in … Continue reading

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Greece: Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory

On Saturday morning, Greece’s prime minister surprised negotiators (including his own) when he called for Greeks to go to the polls on July 5 and vote on whether Greece should accept the measures proposed by the European Central Bank (ECB), … Continue reading

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FOMC: Another baby step toward liftoff

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) upgraded its assessment of the U.S. economy in its policy statement but signaled it is still waiting for more evidence that inflation will move toward its 2% target. There were tweaks to the economic … Continue reading

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Greece: Down to the wire or over the edge?

Today we have a joint post by John Manley, CFA, and Brian Jacobsen, Ph.D., CFA, CFP®. “…Socialist governments traditionally do make a financial mess. They always run out of other people’s money.”—Baroness Margaret Thatcher It would appear that the current … Continue reading

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Continued improvement in the labor market

The Federal Reserve (Fed) inched a bit closer to a rate hike with today’s employment situation report. Payrolls expanded by 280,000, and the past two months were revised to add 32,000 jobs, up from previous reports. Wage gains remain low, … Continue reading

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Low and slow: The Fed on rate hikes

Today’s post was jointly written by Aldo Ceccarelli, CFA, Jim Kochan, John Manley, CFA, and Dr. Brian Jacobsen, CFA,CFP®. Aldo, Jim, John, and I had little to do but contemplate how best to barbeque some ribs. The phrase low and … Continue reading

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The Fed is ready to get the party started, but not yet

The April meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) seems like ancient history. Since the meeting, the dollar has weakened relative to the euro, Treasury yields have moved higher, and additional economic data is pointing to a somewhat soft … Continue reading

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Whither, or wither, the dollar?

If you are an investor with a 100% domestic portfolio, you might not think that changes in the value of the dollar matter to you. That would be wrong. The dollar matters to the profitability—and, loosely, to the stock prices—of … Continue reading

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Yellen warns about “quite high valuations”

Stock market valuations are lower today than they were yesterday. Why? A good chunk of it could be because yesterday Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Yellen said stock valuations were “quite high” at a conference with International Monetary Fund Managing Director … Continue reading

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Low productivity growth: Cyclical, not a new trend

Nonfarm productivity (output per hour worked) declined 1.9% in the first quarter of 2015. Output declined 0.2%, while hours worked increased 1.7%. This is the second quarter in a row that productivity declined. The last time that happened was in … Continue reading

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